Sassuolo v Fiorentina: analysis and our pick

Sassuolo looking for a response

Sassuolo have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–6 home defeat to Lazio and a 0–2 away defeat at Como. Fiorentina have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Atalanta and a 1–2 away defeat at Inter.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Sassuolo, 1 draw, 2 for Fiorentina, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo (26 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 80%. Sassuolo score 1.2 and concede 3.0 a game, Fiorentina 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Fiorentina · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: Fiorentina have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sassuolo — last game: Against Lazio (2-6) they had 36% of the shots (9 to 16, on target 2-8) and 42% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 6 from 8 on target. 🟥 Red card on 31′ for Sassuolo (Kristian Thorstvedt): they played with ten for ~59 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 43′, conceded on 45′. 45′–60′: under 92% of the pressure → conceded on 55′. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 65′. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Fiorentina — last game: Against Atalanta (2-2) they had 72% of the shots (26 to 10, on target 4-5) and 60% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → goal on 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.