Newcastle v Everton: analysis and our pick

Newcastle looking for a response

Newcastle have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Everton and a 2–0 away win at Crystal Palace. Everton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Newcastle and a 0–2 away defeat at Arsenal.

The head-to-head favours Everton

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Newcastle, 0 draws, 4 for Everton, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Everton 3–1 Newcastle (29 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Newcastle score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Everton 1.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Everton · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Everton have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Newcastle — last game: Away to Everton (1-3) they had 73% of the shots (29 to 11, on target 10-5) and 56% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Everton — last game: Against Newcastle (3-1) they had 28% of the shots (11 to 29, on target 5-10) and 44% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Everton) 2.90 → 3.25 (+12.1%, drifting) · 1 (Newcastle) 2.35 → 2.15 (-8.5%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.57 → 1.67 (+6.4%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.40 → 1.33 (-5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.