Mbeya City v Singida Black Stars: analysis and our pick

Mbeya City looking for a response

Mbeya City have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–4 away defeat at Azam and a 1–2 away defeat at JKT Tanzania. Singida Black Stars have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Pamba Jiji and a 1–1 home draw with Tusker.

The head-to-head favours Singida Black Stars

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Mbeya City, 0 draws, 2 for Singida Black Stars, with 5.0 goals a game. Most recently: Singida Black Stars 4–1 Mbeya City (26 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Mbeya City score 0.4 and concede 2.2 a game, Singida Black Stars 0.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.4 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 68% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Singida Black Stars · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 68%: the model expects 2.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Singida Black Stars have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Mbeya City — last game: Away to Polisi Tanzania (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Polisi Tanzania). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Singida Black Stars — last game: Against Tusker (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots..