Lorient v Stade Brestois 29: analysis and our pick

Stade Brestois 29 have a chance to respond

Lorient have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Angers and a 1–0 home win over Monaco. Stade Brestois 29 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Nice and a 1–1 away draw with Lille.

The head-to-head favours Stade Brestois 29

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Lorient, 2 draws, 3 for Stade Brestois 29, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Lorient (7 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Lorient score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Stade Brestois 29 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Lorient · 36%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Lorient have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lorient — last game: Away to Angers (0-0) they had 56% of the shots (10 to 8, on target 1-5) and 52% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Stade Brestois 29 — last game: Against Nice (1-2) they had 59% of the shots (13 to 9, on target 7-2) and 52% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 61′. 75′–90′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 83′. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.