Kalamata v Iraklis 1908: analysis and our pick
Super League 1 · tomorrow 19:30 · Dimotiko Stadio Paralias. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Kalamata in good form
Kalamata have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Nestos Chrisoupolis and a 0–5 away defeat at Olympiacos. Iraklis 1908 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Kifisia and a 1–2 away defeat at PAOK.
The head-to-head favours Kalamata
In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Kalamata, 0 draws, 0 for Iraklis 1908, with 1.0 goals a game. Most recently: Kalamata 1–0 Iraklis 1908 (28 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 60%. Kalamata score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Iraklis 1908 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Kalamata · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Kalamata have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Kalamata — last game: Away to Olympiacos (0-5) they had 15% of the shots (3 to 17, on target 2-10) and 26% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 10 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 42% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Iraklis 1908 — last game: Against Kifisia (2-3) they had 36% of the shots (8 to 14, on target 2-6) and 41% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.