Gil Vicente v Guimaraes: analysis and our pick

Gil Vicente in good form

Gil Vicente have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Benfica and a 0–1 home defeat to FC Porto. Guimaraes have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over Maritimo and a 1–0 away win at Recreativa de Lamelas.

The head-to-head favours Guimaraes

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Gil Vicente, 1 draw, 4 for Guimaraes, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Gil Vicente 0–1 Guimaraes (18 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 55%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 40%. Gil Vicente score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Guimaraes 1.6 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.1 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Guimaraes · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 55%. In 1X2: Guimaraes have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gil Vicente — last game: Against FC Porto (0-1) they had 45% of the shots (10 to 12, on target 2-4) and 42% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 84′ for Gil Vicente (Marvin Elimbi Gilbert): they played with ten for ~6 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 3 they averaged 44% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs. Guimaraes — last game: Against Maritimo (5-0) they had 62% of the shots (16 to 10, on target 8-2) and 57% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–90′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → goal on 48′, 60′, 76′, 90′. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 54% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.00 → 3.25 (+8.3%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.80 → 1.95 (+8.3%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.95 → 1.80 (-7.7%, backed) · Over 3.5 4.00 → 3.75 (-6.2%, backed).