Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 19:00 · Eryaman Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. looking for a response
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over Karaköprü Belediyespor and a 0–2 away defeat at Konyaspor. Alanyaspor have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over 12 Bingölspor and a 1–2 home defeat to Kocaelispor.
The head-to-head favours Gençlerbirliği S.K.
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 2 draws, 0 for Alanyaspor, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Alanyaspor 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (9 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Gençlerbirliği S.K. score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Alanyaspor 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.1 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 73% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 73%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Gençlerbirliği S.K. have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — last game: Away to Konyaspor (0-2) they had 27% of the shots (6 to 16, on target 2-7) and 48% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Alanyaspor — last game: Against Kocaelispor (1-2) they had 29% of the shots (7 to 17, on target 4-5) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 39% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 16% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.