Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna: analysis and our pick

Deportivo La Coruna looking for a response

Deportivo La Coruna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Auriense and a 0–1 away defeat at Atletico Madrid. Osasuna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 6–0 away win at Atletico Calatayud and a 0–2 away defeat at Sevilla.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Deportivo La Coruna, 1 draw, 2 for Osasuna, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Osasuna (16 Dec 2021).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Deportivo La Coruna score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Osasuna 2.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Deportivo La Coruna · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Deportivo La Coruna have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Deportivo La Coruna — last game: Away to Auriense (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Osasuna — last game: Away to Sevilla (0-2) they had 37% of the shots (10 to 17, on target 2-7) and 56% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 24′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 44% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.20 → 3.00 (-6.3%, backed) · 2 (Osasuna) 3.60 → 3.80 (+5.6%, drifting) · Over 1.5 1.36 → 1.40 (+2.9%, drifting) · 1 (Deportivo La Coruna) 2.15 → 2.10 (-2.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.