Benfica v Alverca: analysis and our pick

Benfica in good form

Benfica have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Gil Vicente and a 2–1 away win at Santa Clara. Alverca have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Arouca and a 0–2 away defeat at Tondela.

The head-to-head favours Benfica

In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Benfica, 0 draws, 0 for Alverca, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Benfica 2–1 Alverca (8 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Alverca 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.2 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Benfica · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Benfica have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Benfica — last game: Away to Santa Clara (2-1) they had 54% of the shots (15 to 13, on target 3-6) and 61% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 32′. Over the last 4 they averaged 67% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. Alverca — last game: Against Arouca (0-1) they had 40% of the shots (10 to 15, on target 1-3) and 29% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 6′ for Alverca (Steven Baseya): they played with ten for ~84 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–32′: under 93% of the pressure → conceded on 24′. 32′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.88 → 4.00 (+38.9%, drifting) · Under 1.5 6.50 → 9.00 (+38.5%, drifting) · Double chance X2 5.00 → 6.00 (+20%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.80 → 2.10 (+16.7%, drifting).