Atromitos v Volos: analysis and our pick

Atromitos looking for a response

Atromitos have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Volos and a 1–3 away defeat at Aris Thessalonikis. Volos have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Atromitos and a 0–1 home defeat to Panathinaikos.

The head-to-head favours Atromitos

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Atromitos, 1 draw, 1 for Volos, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Volos 1–3 Atromitos (29 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 75%. Atromitos score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Volos 0.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Atromitos · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Atromitos have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atromitos — last game: Away to Aris Thessalonikis (1-3) they had 32% of the shots (6 to 13, on target 2-4) and 45% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: under 85% of the pressure → conceded on 23′, 27′. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 47% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Volos — last game: Against Panathinaikos (0-1) they had 12% of the shots (3 to 22, on target 0-6) and 31% possession. No shots on target, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 30% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents.