Atalanta v Parma: analysis and our pick

Parma have a chance to respond

Atalanta have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Fiorentina and a 4–4 home draw with Frosinone. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Udinese and a 1–2 away defeat at Lazio.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Atalanta, 1 draw, 2 for Parma, with 4.0 goals a game. Most recently: Atalanta 4–0 Parma (25 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Atalanta score 2.2 and concede 2.4 a game, Parma 0.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Atalanta · 57%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Atalanta have the highest probability (57%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atalanta — last game: Away to Fiorentina (2-2) they had 28% of the shots (10 to 26, on target 5-4) and 40% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 78% of the pressure → conceded on 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Parma — last game: Against Udinese (0-0) they had 29% of the shots (8 to 20, on target 2-5) and 42% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–31′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 31′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 2.50 → 2.38 (-4.8%, backed) · 2 (Parma) 6.00 → 6.25 (+4.2%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.50 (+3.9%, drifting) · 1 (Atalanta) 1.53 → 1.50 (-2%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.