Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln: analysis and our pick

1. FC Köln have a chance to respond

Union Berlin have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–5 away defeat at 1. FC Köln and a 1–1 away draw with FC Augsburg. 1. FC Köln have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over Union Berlin and a 0–0 home draw with Schalke 04.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Union Berlin, 1 draw, 2 for 1. FC Köln, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: 1. FC Köln 5–0 Union Berlin (27 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Union Berlin score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game, 1. FC Köln 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Union Berlin · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Union Berlin have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Union Berlin — last game: Away to 1. FC Köln (0-5) they had 55% of the shots (17 to 14, on target 4-8) and 46% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 8 on target. 0′–16′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 16′–31′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. 1. FC Köln — last game: Against Union Berlin (5-0) they had 45% of the shots (14 to 17, on target 8-4) and 54% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 5, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–16′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 16′–31′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 69% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.75 (+10%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.53 → 1.44 (-5.9%, backed) · Not both to score 2.38 → 2.25 (-5.5%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed).