Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · today 15:00 · Papara Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Trabzonspor in good form
Trabzonspor have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–3 away win at Rizespor and a 2–0 home win over Hearts. Gaziantep FK have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Etimesgut SK and a 1–3 home defeat to Erzurumspor FK.
The head-to-head favours Trabzonspor
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 draws, 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Gaziantep FK 1–2 Trabzonspor (22 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Trabzonspor score 3.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Gaziantep FK 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.1 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Trabzonspor · 59%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Trabzonspor have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Trabzonspor — last game: Away to Rizespor (4-3) they had 61% of the shots (14 to 9, on target 7-6) and 54% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs. Gaziantep FK — last game: Against Erzurumspor FK (1-3) they had 70% of the shots (19 to 8, on target 7-2) and 62% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 2 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 3.00 → 3.75 (+25%, drifting) · 2 (Gaziantep FK) 6.50 → 8.00 (+23.1%, drifting) · X (draw) 5.50 → 6.50 (+18.2%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.88 → 3.40 (+18.1%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.