Telstar v Utrecht: analysis and our pick

Telstar looking for a response

Telstar have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Almere City FC and a 2–3 away defeat at GO Ahead Eagles. Utrecht have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Kozakken Boys and a 1–1 home draw with PEC Zwolle.

The head-to-head favours Utrecht

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Telstar, 1 draw, 1 for Utrecht, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Utrecht 4–1 Telstar (11 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Telstar score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Utrecht 1.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Utrecht · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Utrecht have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Telstar — last game: Against Almere City FC (0-2) they had 63% of the shots (12 to 7, on target 1-4) and 68% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Utrecht — last game: Away to Kozakken Boys (1-0) they had 35% of the shots (8 to 15, on target 3-3) and 53% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 45′–60′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 79% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Telstar) 2.80 → 3.30 (+17.9%, drifting) · 2 (Utrecht) 2.30 → 2.05 (-10.9%, backed) · Under 1.5 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.57 → 1.70 (+8.3%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.