Strasbourg v Auxerre: analysis and our pick

Strasbourg looking for a response

Strasbourg have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Rennes and a 1–3 home defeat to Paris Saint Germain. Auxerre have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Le Mans and a 3–1 away win at Le Havre.

The head-to-head favours Strasbourg

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Strasbourg, 1 draw, 0 for Auxerre, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg (7 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. Strasbourg score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game, Auxerre 2.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.7 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Strasbourg · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Strasbourg have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Strasbourg — last game: Away to Rennes (0-3) they had 46% of the shots (12 to 14, on target 4-4) and 53% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 91% of the pressure → conceded on 34′, 41′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Auxerre — last game: Against Le Mans (1-1) they had 52% of the shots (12 to 11, on target 4-2) and 60% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 58% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Auxerre) 4.33 → 4.00 (-7.6%, backed) · 1 (Strasbourg) 1.80 → 1.85 (+2.8%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.95 → 1.91 (-2.1%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.20 → 1.22 (+1.7%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.