St. Truiden v OH Leuven: analysis and our pick

St. Truiden in good form

St. Truiden have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Club Brugge KV and a 1–0 away win at Midtjylland. OH Leuven have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Lommel United and a 1–0 home win over Francs Borains.

The head-to-head favours St. Truiden

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for St. Truiden, 1 draw, 1 for OH Leuven, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: St. Truiden 1–0 OH Leuven (18 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. St. Truiden score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game, OH Leuven 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · St. Truiden · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: St. Truiden have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

St. Truiden — last game: Away to Club Brugge KV (2-3) they had 35% of the shots (6 to 11, on target 2-5) and 48% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 41′, 43′. 60′–75′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 75′. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 63% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. OH Leuven — last game: Against Lommel United (2-2) they had 64% of the shots (21 to 12, on target 6-3) and 43% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 90′. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · 2 (OH Leuven) 4.75 → 4.33 (-8.8%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.50 (+5%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.