Racing Santander v Real Madrid: analysis and our pick

Real Madrid have a chance to respond

Racing Santander have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Ribadesella CF and a 2–1 home win over Espanyol. Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Barcelona and a 4–1 home win over RB Leipzig.

The head-to-head favours Real Madrid

In the last 4 meetings: 0 wins for Racing Santander, 1 draw, 3 for Real Madrid, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Real Madrid 4–0 Racing Santander (18 Feb 2012).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 70%. Racing Santander score 1.2 and concede 2.0 a game, Real Madrid 3.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 2.1 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Real Madrid · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Real Madrid have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Racing Santander — last game: Against Espanyol (2-1) they had 68% of the shots (23 to 11, on target 9-1) and 55% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 81% of the pressure → goal on 69′, conceded on 62′. Over the last 4 they averaged 54% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Real Madrid — last game: Away to Barcelona (2-1) they had 36% of the shots (10 to 18, on target 5-6) and 38% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 0′–16′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 11.00 → 9.00 (-18.2%, backed) · X (draw) 7.50 → 8.50 (+13.3%, drifting) · Under 3.5 2.50 → 2.20 (-12%, backed) · Not both to score 2.50 → 2.20 (-12%, backed).