PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · tomorrow 13:15 · MAC³PARK Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
PEC Zwolle looking for a response
PEC Zwolle have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to FC OSS and a 1–1 away draw with Utrecht. ADO Den Haag have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Excelsior '31 and a 2–3 home defeat to Heerenveen.
The head-to-head favours ADO Den Haag
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 draws, 3 for ADO Den Haag, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: ADO Den Haag 3–1 PEC Zwolle (17 Feb 2023).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. PEC Zwolle score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, ADO Den Haag 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.9 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · ADO Den Haag · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: ADO Den Haag have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
PEC Zwolle — last game: Against FC OSS (1-2) they had 70% of the shots (14 to 6, on target 6-3) and 73% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. ADO Den Haag — last game: Against Heerenveen (2-3) they had 61% of the shots (23 to 15, on target 7-5) and 53% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 60′–75′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → goal on 72′, conceded on 66′. Over the last 4 they averaged 47% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.