Paris FC v Monaco: analysis and our pick

Monaco have a chance to respond

Paris FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Lens and a 4–3 home win over Rennes. Monaco have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Lille and a 3–0 home win over Freiburg.

The head-to-head favours Paris FC

In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Paris FC, 0 draws, 0 for Monaco, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Paris FC 4–1 Monaco (10 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Paris FC score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Monaco 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.2 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Paris FC · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Paris FC have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Paris FC — last game: Away to Lens (1-2) they had 31% of the shots (4 to 9, on target 1-3) and 44% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 63′. 75′–90′: under 91% of the pressure → conceded on 83′. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Monaco — last game: Against Lille (1-1) they had 83% of the shots (20 to 4, on target 6-2) and 64% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 66′ for Lille (Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi): the opponent played with ten for ~24 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Monaco) 2.90 → 2.70 (-6.9%, backed) · 1 (Paris FC) 2.35 → 2.50 (+6.4%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.67 → 1.62 (-3%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.