PAOK v Asteras Tripolis: analysis and our pick

PAOK in good form

PAOK have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over AEK Athens and a 1–2 away defeat at OFI. Asteras Tripolis have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Kifisia and a 0–0 home draw with Levadiakos.

The head-to-head favours PAOK

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for PAOK, 1 draw, 0 for Asteras Tripolis, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: PAOK 2–0 Asteras Tripolis (1 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. PAOK score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Asteras Tripolis 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.1 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · PAOK · 62%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: PAOK have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

PAOK — last game: Away to OFI (1-2) they had 69% of the shots (27 to 12, on target 8-7) and 58% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 69% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Asteras Tripolis — last game: Against Levadiakos (0-0) they had 60% of the shots (9 to 6, on target 1-1) and 65% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 36% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.50 → 4.00 (-11.1%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.75 (+10%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.10 (-8.7%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.50 → 1.40 (-6.7%, backed).