Panetolikos v OFI: analysis and our pick
Super League 1 · today 18:00 · Panetolikos Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Panetolikos looking for a response
Panetolikos have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–5 away defeat at AEK Athens and a 0–2 home defeat to Olympiacos. OFI have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Larisa and a 2–1 home win over PAOK.
The head-to-head favours Panetolikos
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Panetolikos, 0 draws, 2 for OFI, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: OFI 1–0 Panetolikos (25 Jan 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Panetolikos score 0.2 and concede 3.0 a game, OFI 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Panetolikos · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Panetolikos have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Panetolikos — last game: Away to AEK Athens (0-5) they had 24% of the shots (8 to 26, on target 3-12) and 47% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 12 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 4′. 15′–32′: under 92% of the pressure → conceded on 23′. 32′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 38′. Over the last 5 they averaged 28% of the shots and 21% of the shots on target. They turn 10% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. OFI — last game: Against PAOK (2-1) they had 31% of the shots (12 to 27, on target 7-8) and 42% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 8 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 22% of the shots and 24% of the shots on target. They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Under 1.5 3.25 → 3.40 (+4.6%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.70 → 1.75 (+2.9%, drifting) · Over 2.5 2.10 → 2.05 (-2.4%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.