Panathinaikos v AEK Athens: analysis and our pick

Panathinaikos in good form

Panathinaikos have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Aris Thessalonikis and a 1–0 away win at Volos. AEK Athens have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at PAOK and a 5–0 home win over Panetolikos.

The head-to-head favours AEK Athens

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Panathinaikos, 1 draw, 3 for AEK Athens, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: AEK Athens 2–1 Panathinaikos (10 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 55%. Panathinaikos score 3.0 and concede 0.8 a game, AEK Athens 2.2 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.3 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Panathinaikos · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Panathinaikos have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Panathinaikos — last game: Away to Volos (1-0) they had 88% of the shots (22 to 3, on target 6-0) and 69% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 79% of the shots and 85% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. AEK Athens — last game: Against Panetolikos (5-0) they had 76% of the shots (26 to 8, on target 12-3) and 53% possession. From 12 shots on target they scored 5, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 4′. 15′–32′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 23′. 32′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 38′. Over the last 4 they averaged 63% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 57% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.00 → 3.25 (+8.3%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.80 → 1.90 (+5.6%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.00 → 1.90 (-5%, backed) · 2 (AEK Athens) 3.10 → 3.25 (+4.8%, drifting).