Marseille v Toulouse: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · today 21:45 · Orange Vélodrome. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Marseille in good form
Marseille have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–3 home win over Le Havre and a 0–1 away defeat at SK Sturm Graz. Toulouse have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Estac Troyes and a 3–0 away win at Le Mans.
The head-to-head favours Marseille
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Marseille, 2 draws, 0 for Toulouse, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Toulouse 0–1 Marseille (7 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Marseille score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Toulouse 2.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.8 = 3.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 91% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Marseille · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 74%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 91%: the model expects 3.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Marseille have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Marseille — last game: Against Le Havre (4-3) they had 35% of the shots (11 to 20, on target 5-7) and 53% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 52% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Toulouse — last game: Against Estac Troyes (0-0) they had 47% of the shots (7 to 8, on target 3-0) and 63% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.30 → 2.20 (-4.3%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.