Maritimo v Santa Clara: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · today 20:00 · Estádio do Marítimo. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Maritimo looking for a response
Maritimo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Sporting CP and a 0–5 away defeat at Guimaraes. Santa Clara have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Benfica and a 2–3 away defeat at Mafra.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Maritimo, 1 draw, 2 for Santa Clara, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Maritimo 0–0 Santa Clara (14 Apr 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Maritimo score 1.0 and concede 2.2 a game, Santa Clara 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.4 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 71% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Santa Clara · 45%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 71%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Santa Clara have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Maritimo — last game: Away to Guimaraes (0-5) they had 38% of the shots (10 to 16, on target 2-8) and 43% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–90′: under 69% of the pressure → conceded on 48′, 60′, 76′, 90′. Over the last 3 they averaged 33% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Santa Clara — last game: Against Benfica (1-2) they had 46% of the shots (13 to 15, on target 6-3) and 39% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 32′. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 1.30 → 1.33 (+2.3%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.