Lyon v Angers: analysis and our pick

Lyon looking for a response

Lyon have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Paris Saint Germain and a 0–3 away defeat at 1899 Hoffenheim. Angers have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Lorient and a 2–5 home defeat to Marseille.

The head-to-head favours Lyon

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Lyon, 1 draw, 0 for Angers, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Angers 0–0 Lyon (5 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Lyon score 1.2 and concede 2.0 a game, Angers 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.1 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Lyon · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Lyon have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lyon — last game: Away to Paris Saint Germain (0-2) they had 32% of the shots (8 to 17, on target 5-10) and 32% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 10 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 90% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 72′. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Angers — last game: Against Lorient (0-0) they had 44% of the shots (8 to 10, on target 5-1) and 48% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 37% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.62 (+10.1%, drifting) · X (draw) 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.30 (-8%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.