Lommel United v Gent: analysis and our pick

Gent have a chance to respond

Lommel United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with OH Leuven and a 1–4 away defeat at St. Truiden. Gent have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Anderlecht and a 0–2 away defeat at Braga.

The head-to-head favours Gent

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Lommel United, 0 draws, 1 for Gent, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Lommel United 0–2 Gent (1 Dec 2021).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 35%. Lommel United score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Gent 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.4 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 73% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Gent · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 73%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Gent have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lommel United — last game: Away to OH Leuven (2-2) they had 36% of the shots (12 to 21, on target 3-6) and 57% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 90′. Over the last 4 they averaged 46% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Gent — last game: Against Anderlecht (4-0) they had 36% of the shots (8 to 14, on target 7-4) and 37% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–76′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 73′. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 13% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.00 → 2.75 (-8.3%, backed) · Under 1.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 2.05 → 2.15 (+4.9%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.00 → 2.08 (+4%, drifting).