Liverpool v Arsenal: analysis and our pick

Liverpool in good form

Liverpool have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Chelsea and a 2–0 home win over Brighton. Arsenal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Fleetwood Town and a 2–0 home win over Everton.

The head-to-head favours Liverpool

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Liverpool, 3 draws, 0 for Arsenal, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool (8 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Liverpool score 3.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Arsenal 1.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.3 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Arsenal · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Arsenal have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Liverpool — last game: Against Chelsea (1-1) they had 48% of the shots (10 to 11, on target 4-4) and 52% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 52% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Arsenal — last game: Away to Fleetwood Town (1-1) they had 90% of the shots (26 to 3, on target 7-2) and 52% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 85′ for Arsenal (Max Dowman): they played with ten for ~5 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.20 → 3.00 (-6.3%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · Under 2.5 1.91 → 2.00 (+4.7%, drifting).