Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis: analysis and our pick

Aris Thessalonikis have a chance to respond

Levadiakos have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Asteras Tripolis and a 0–0 home draw with Volos. Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Panathinaikos and a 3–1 home win over Atromitos.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Levadiakos, 3 draws, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Levadiakos (17 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 30%. Levadiakos score 0.0 and concede 0.6 a game, Aris Thessalonikis 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Aris Thessalonikis · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Aris Thessalonikis have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Levadiakos — last game: Away to Asteras Tripolis (0-0) they had 40% of the shots (6 to 9, on target 1-1) and 35% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: under 70% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 0% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Aris Thessalonikis — last game: Against Atromitos (3-1) they had 68% of the shots (13 to 6, on target 4-2) and 55% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → goal on 23′, 27′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 66% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Levadiakos) 3.80 → 3.40 (-10.5%, backed) · 2 (Aris Thessalonikis) 1.95 → 2.10 (+7.7%, drifting) · Under 1.5 3.25 → 3.00 (-7.7%, backed) · Over 3.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.