Lecce v Genoa: analysis and our pick

Lecce looking for a response

Lecce have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–5 away defeat at Frosinone and a 0–2 home defeat to Juventus. Genoa have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Juventus and a 1–0 home win over Venezia.

The head-to-head favours Genoa

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Lecce, 2 draws, 2 for Genoa, with 1.4 goals a game. Most recently: Lecce 1–0 Genoa (24 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 35%. Lecce score 1.0 and concede 2.4 a game, Genoa 1.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Genoa · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Genoa have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lecce — last game: Away to Frosinone (1-5) they had 37% of the shots (15 to 26, on target 6-9) and 40% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 5 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 55% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Genoa — last game: Against Juventus (2-0) they had 47% of the shots (14 to 16, on target 2-3) and 37% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 12′. 75′–90′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target. They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 4.50 → 4.33 (-3.8%, backed) · 1 (Lecce) 3.30 → 3.20 (-3%, backed) · 2 (Genoa) 2.38 → 2.45 (+2.9%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.