Lazio v Cagliari: analysis and our pick

Lazio in good form

Lazio have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–2 away win at Sassuolo and a 2–1 home win over Parma. Cagliari have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–4 away defeat at AS Roma and a 0–2 home defeat to Bologna.

The head-to-head favours Lazio

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Lazio, 1 draw, 0 for Cagliari, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Cagliari 0–0 Lazio (21 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Lazio score 3.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Cagliari 0.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.0 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Lazio · 61%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Lazio have the highest probability (61%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lazio — last game: Away to Sassuolo (6-2) they had 64% of the shots (16 to 9, on target 8-2) and 58% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 31′ for Sassuolo (Kristian Thorstvedt): the opponent played with ten for ~59 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 43′, scored on the break on 45′. 45′–60′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 55′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 65′. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 77% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Cagliari — last game: Away to AS Roma (2-4) they had 49% of the shots (19 to 20, on target 8-8) and 39% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 21′. 60′–75′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target. They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 4.75 → 4.50 (-5.3%, backed) · Double chance X2 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · 2 (Cagliari) 6.50 → 6.25 (-3.8%, backed) · 1 (Lazio) 1.44 → 1.48 (+2.8%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.