Kasimpasa v Besiktas: analysis and our pick

Kasimpasa in good form

Kasimpasa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Çorluspor 1947 and a 1–0 away win at Eyupspor. Besiktas have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Istanbul Basaksehir and a 2–2 home draw with Crystal Palace.

The head-to-head favours Kasimpasa

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Kasimpasa, 2 draws, 1 for Besiktas, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Besiktas 2–1 Kasimpasa (19 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Kasimpasa score 1.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Besiktas 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Kasimpasa · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Kasimpasa have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kasimpasa — last game: Away to Eyupspor (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (10 to 11, on target 4-3) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Besiktas — last game: Against Istanbul Basaksehir (2-0) they had 65% of the shots (17 to 9, on target 6-4) and 65% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.15 → 2.30 (+7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.50 (-4.6%, backed) · Not both to score 2.00 → 1.91 (-4.5%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.67 → 1.60 (-4.2%, backed).