Juventus v Napoli: analysis and our pick

Napoli have a chance to respond

Juventus have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Genoa and a 2–0 away win at Lecce. Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–1 away win at Monza and a 3–3 home draw with AS Roma.

The head-to-head favours Napoli

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Juventus, 1 draw, 3 for Napoli, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Juventus 3–0 Napoli (25 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Juventus score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Napoli 2.4 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.5 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Napoli · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Napoli have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Juventus — last game: Away to Genoa (0-2) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 3-2) and 63% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 82% of the pressure → conceded on 12′. 75′–90′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Napoli — last game: Away to Monza (4-1) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 7-5) and 64% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: under 79% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 94% of the pressure → goal on 62′, 67′. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.50 → 3.20 (-8.6%, backed) · Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.80 → 1.91 (+6.1%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting).