Istanbul Basaksehir v Samsunspor: analysis and our pick

Samsunspor have a chance to respond

Istanbul Basaksehir have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Besiktas and a 2–1 home win over Gaziantep FK. Samsunspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Amed and a 1–4 away defeat at Kasimpasa.

The head-to-head favours Istanbul Basaksehir

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Istanbul Basaksehir, 0 draws, 1 for Samsunspor, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Istanbul Basaksehir 3–0 Samsunspor (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Istanbul Basaksehir score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Samsunspor 0.6 and 3.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 0.8 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Istanbul Basaksehir · 63%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Istanbul Basaksehir have the highest probability (63%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Istanbul Basaksehir — last game: Away to Besiktas (0-2) they had 35% of the shots (9 to 17, on target 4-6) and 35% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Samsunspor — last game: Against Amed (1-2) they had 22% of the shots (6 to 21, on target 2-5) and 47% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 37′ for Samsunspor (A. Sousa): they played with ten for ~53 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 61′ for Amed (M. Diagne): the opponent played with ten for ~29 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 1.95 → 2.10 (+7.7%, drifting) · 1 (Istanbul Basaksehir) 1.80 → 1.70 (-5.6%, backed) · 2 (Samsunspor) 4.10 → 4.33 (+5.6%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.