Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam: analysis and our pick

Sparta Rotterdam have a chance to respond

Groningen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Emmen and a 2–2 away draw with NEC Nijmegen. Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Fortuna Sittard and a 1–2 home defeat to Ajax.

The head-to-head favours Sparta Rotterdam

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Groningen, 0 draws, 4 for Sparta Rotterdam, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 Groningen (31 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 90%, both teams scored 85%. Groningen score 2.4 and concede 2.0 a game, Sparta Rotterdam 1.8 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 2.0 = 4.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 92% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sparta Rotterdam · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 92%: the model expects 4.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: Sparta Rotterdam have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Groningen — last game: Against Emmen (0-2) they had 80% of the shots (12 to 3, on target 4-2) and 72% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 16′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 55′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Sparta Rotterdam — last game: Against Fortuna Sittard (2-2) they had 58% of the shots (19 to 14, on target 6-5) and 60% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.73 → 1.67 (-3.5%, backed) · Double chance X2 2.00 → 2.05 (+2.5%, drifting) · 2 (Sparta Rotterdam) 4.10 → 4.20 (+2.4%, drifting).