Getafe v Sevilla: analysis and our pick
La Liga · tomorrow 15:00 · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sevilla have a chance to respond
Getafe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Lebrijana and a 0–4 away defeat at Athletic Club. Sevilla have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Hortaleza and a 2–0 home win over Osasuna.
The head-to-head favours Sevilla
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Getafe, 1 draw, 3 for Sevilla, with 1.2 goals a game. Most recently: Getafe 0–1 Sevilla (22 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Getafe score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Sevilla 2.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sevilla · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Sevilla have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Getafe — last game: Away to Athletic Club (0-4) they had 39% of the shots (7 to 11, on target 1-4) and 38% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 86′ for Getafe (Mario Martín Rielves): they played with ten for ~4 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 65% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs. Sevilla — last game: Away to Hortaleza (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 59% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 56% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
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