Frosinone v Torino: analysis and our pick

Frosinone in good form

Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over Lecce and a 4–4 away draw with Atalanta. Torino have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Como and a 3–2 home win over Monza.

The head-to-head favours Torino

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Frosinone, 2 draws, 2 for Torino, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Torino 0–0 Frosinone (21 Apr 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Frosinone score 3.0 and concede 2.2 a game, Torino 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.5 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Frosinone · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Frosinone have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Frosinone — last game: Against Lecce (5-1) they had 63% of the shots (26 to 15, on target 9-6) and 60% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Torino — last game: Against Como (1-3) they had 38% of the shots (11 to 18, on target 5-5) and 28% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.75 → 3.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · 2 (Torino) 3.20 → 3.40 (+6.2%, drifting) · 1 (Frosinone) 2.10 → 2.00 (-4.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.