Falkirk v Celtic: analysis and our pick
Premiership · tomorrow 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Falkirk in good form
Falkirk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Aberdeen and a 3–0 home win over Kilmarnock. Celtic have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Dundee Utd and a 2–1 away win at Hibernian.
The head-to-head favours Celtic
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Falkirk, 0 draws, 5 for Celtic, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Celtic 2–1 Falkirk (29 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Falkirk score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game, Celtic 2.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Celtic · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Celtic have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Falkirk — last game: Away to Aberdeen (1-0) they had 44% of the shots (12 to 15, on target 4-5) and 55% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Celtic — last game: Against Dundee Utd (2-2) they had 72% of the shots (28 to 11, on target 7-5) and 65% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 95% of the pressure → goal on 65′. 75′–90′: pressed with 65% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.