Excelsior v FC Twente: analysis and our pick

Excelsior looking for a response

Excelsior have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at MVV and a 0–1 away defeat at Fortuna Sittard. FC Twente have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at AZ Alkmaar and a 4–1 away win at Lincoln Red Imps FC.

The head-to-head favours FC Twente

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Excelsior, 2 draws, 2 for FC Twente, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: FC Twente 0–0 Excelsior (24 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 55%. Excelsior score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game, FC Twente 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 2.0 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · FC Twente · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: FC Twente have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Excelsior — last game: Away to MVV (3-0) they had 33% of the shots (8 to 16, on target 5-6) and 40% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 60′. Over the last 5 they averaged 32% of the shots and 26% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. FC Twente — last game: Away to AZ Alkmaar (2-0) they had 55% of the shots (16 to 13, on target 5-5) and 49% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 88′ for FC Twente (Daouda Weidmann): they played with ten for ~2 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Excelsior) 5.50 → 6.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · 2 (FC Twente) 1.57 → 1.50 (-4.5%, backed) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.50 (+3.9%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.