Elche v Valencia: analysis and our pick

Elche in good form

Elche have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Pinatar and a 3–0 away win at Rayo Vallecano. Valencia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Villarreal and a 0–0 home draw with Athletic Club.

The head-to-head favours Valencia

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Elche, 2 draws, 2 for Valencia, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Elche 1–0 Valencia (11 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Elche score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game, Valencia 1.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Valencia · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Valencia have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Elche — last game: Away to Pinatar (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 13% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs. Valencia — last game: Against Villarreal (1-2) they had 32% of the shots (9 to 19, on target 5-3) and 38% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 79′ for Villarreal (Pape Gueye): the opponent played with ten for ~11 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 89′ for Valencia (Harvey Elliott): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 69′. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Elche) 2.25 → 2.35 (+4.4%, drifting) · 2 (Valencia) 3.10 → 3.00 (-3.2%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.62 → 1.57 (-3.1%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.