Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV: analysis and our pick

Eintracht Frankfurt in good form

Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Hamburger SV and a 0–1 away defeat at Borussia Dortmund. Hamburger SV have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt and a 0–1 away defeat at SC Paderborn 07.

The head-to-head favours Eintracht Frankfurt

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 draw, 1 for Hamburger SV, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Hamburger SV 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt (27 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 40%. Eintracht Frankfurt score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Hamburger SV 1.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Eintracht Frankfurt · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Eintracht Frankfurt have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Eintracht Frankfurt — last game: Away to Hamburger SV (3-1) they had 44% of the shots (12 to 15, on target 5-6) and 52% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 74% of the pressure → conceded on 79′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Hamburger SV — last game: Against Eintracht Frankfurt (1-3) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 6-5) and 48% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 74% of the pressure → goal on 79′. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Hamburger SV) 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.50 → 4.75 (+5.6%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.17 → 1.14 (-2.6%, backed) · 1 (Eintracht Frankfurt) 1.57 → 1.53 (-2.5%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.