Como v Venezia: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 13:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Como in good form
Como have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Torino and a 2–0 home win over Sassuolo. Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Inter and a 0–1 away defeat at Genoa.
The head-to-head favours Venezia
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Como, 2 draws, 2 for Venezia, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Como 1–1 Venezia (8 Mar 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Como score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Venezia 0.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.0 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Como · 57%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Como have the highest probability (57%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Como — last game: Away to Torino (3-1) they had 62% of the shots (18 to 11, on target 5-5) and 72% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Venezia — last game: Against Inter (0-2) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 4-2) and 33% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 45′–60′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 9% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.