Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière: analysis and our pick

Charleroi in good form

Charleroi have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Antwerp and a 1–0 away win at Albert Quévy-Mons. RAAL La Louvière have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Zulte Waregem and a 4–0 home win over Liège.

The head-to-head favours RAAL La Louvière

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 draw, 1 for RAAL La Louvière, with 0.5 goals a game. Most recently: Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La Louvière (29 Nov 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 35%. Charleroi score 1.2 and concede 1.0 a game, RAAL La Louvière 2.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Charleroi · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Charleroi have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Charleroi — last game: Away to Antwerp (0-3) they had 67% of the shots (16 to 8, on target 5-5) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. RAAL La Louvière — last game: Against Zulte Waregem (3-0) they had 48% of the shots (14 to 15, on target 8-6) and 45% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 62% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.75 → 3.25 (+18.2%, drifting) · 2 (RAAL La Louvière) 6.00 → 5.25 (-12.5%, backed) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.00 (-7.6%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.73 → 1.85 (+6.9%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.