Cercle Brugge v Antwerp: analysis and our pick

Cercle Brugge looking for a response

Cercle Brugge have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–5 away defeat at Union St. Gilloise and a 2–1 away win at Sporting Hasselt. Antwerp have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Charleroi and a 1–0 away win at Heist.

The head-to-head favours Antwerp

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Cercle Brugge, 2 draws, 2 for Antwerp, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Cercle Brugge 0–4 Antwerp (31 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Cercle Brugge score 1.6 and concede 2.4 a game, Antwerp 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.7 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Antwerp · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Antwerp have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cercle Brugge — last game: Away to Union St. Gilloise (2-5) they had 19% of the shots (5 to 22, on target 2-11) and 35% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 11 on target. 🟥 Red card on 64′ for Cercle Brugge (D. Vanzeir): they played with ten for ~26 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Antwerp — last game: Against Charleroi (3-0) they had 33% of the shots (8 to 16, on target 5-5) and 45% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 4 they averaged 38% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs.