Athletic Club v Real Sociedad: analysis and our pick

Athletic Club in good form

Athletic Club have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 6–1 away win at Prat and a 4–0 home win over Getafe. Real Sociedad have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Levante and a 6–0 away win at Lillestrom.

The head-to-head favours Real Sociedad

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 draw, 3 for Real Sociedad, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Real Sociedad 0–1 Athletic Club (2 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Athletic Club score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Real Sociedad 3.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Athletic Club · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Athletic Club have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Athletic Club — last game: Away to Prat (6-1) they had 78% of the shots (21 to 6, on target 10-2) and 67% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → goal on 29′. 45′–60′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Real Sociedad — last game: Against Levante (2-1) they had 74% of the shots (17 to 6, on target 3-2) and 62% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 68% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Real Sociedad) 3.10 → 3.60 (+16.1%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 3.00 (+14.5%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.50 → 4.00 (-11.1%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.00 (-9.1%, backed).