Arouca v Nacional: analysis and our pick

Arouca in good form

Arouca have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Alverca and a 4–3 away win at CF Os Belenenses. Nacional have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Braga and a 0–1 away defeat at Sanjoanense.

The head-to-head favours Arouca

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Arouca, 0 draws, 1 for Nacional, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Arouca 3–0 Nacional (21 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Arouca score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Nacional 0.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 0.9 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Arouca · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Arouca have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Arouca — last game: Away to Alverca (1-0) they had 60% of the shots (15 to 10, on target 3-1) and 71% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 6′ for Alverca (Steven Baseya): the opponent played with ten for ~84 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–32′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → goal on 24′. 32′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 64% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents. Nacional — last game: Against Braga (1-0) they had 29% of the shots (8 to 20, on target 4-2) and 28% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 46% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Nacional) 4.20 → 5.50 (+31%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.95 → 2.25 (+15.4%, drifting) · 1 (Arouca) 1.80 → 1.57 (-12.8%, backed) · X (draw) 3.75 → 4.10 (+9.3%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.