Amed v Eyupspor: analysis and our pick

Amed in good form

Amed have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Samsunspor and a 1–0 home win over Konyaspor. Eyupspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Kasimpasa and a 0–2 away defeat at Erzurumspor FK.

The head-to-head favours Eyupspor

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Amed, 1 draw, 1 for Eyupspor, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Eyupspor 3–1 Amed (23 Mar 2019).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 30%. Amed score 2.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Eyupspor 0.0 and 3.4. The Poisson model expects 3.0 + 0.5 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Amed · 86%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Amed have the highest probability (86%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Amed — last game: Away to Samsunspor (2-1) they had 78% of the shots (21 to 6, on target 5-2) and 53% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 37′ for Samsunspor (A. Sousa): the opponent played with ten for ~53 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 61′ for Amed (M. Diagne): they played with ten for ~29 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Eyupspor — last game: Against Kasimpasa (0-1) they had 52% of the shots (11 to 10, on target 3-4) and 51% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 0% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 55% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.