Academico Viseu v Rio Ave: analysis and our pick

Academico Viseu in good form

Academico Viseu have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at FC Porto and a 2–1 away win at Sporting CP. Rio Ave have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to Famalicao and a 1–0 away win at Louletano.

The head-to-head favours Rio Ave

In the last 4 meetings: 1 win for Academico Viseu, 0 draws, 3 for Rio Ave, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Rio Ave 3–0 Academico Viseu (22 Jul 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 30%. Academico Viseu score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Rio Ave 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.0 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Academico Viseu · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Academico Viseu have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Academico Viseu — last game: Away to Sporting CP (2-1) they had 24% of the shots (9 to 28, on target 3-4) and 29% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 93% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–90′: under 68% of the pressure → conceded on 62′, scored on the break on 74′. Over the last 3 they averaged 35% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 13% of theirs. Rio Ave — last game: Against Famalicao (0-4) they had 39% of the shots (7 to 11, on target 2-4) and 58% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 80′, 85′, 90′. Over the last 4 they averaged 35% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.85 → 1.95 (+5.4%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.95 → 1.85 (-5.1%, backed) · 2 (Rio Ave) 4.00 → 4.20 (+5%, drifting).