Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim: analysis and our pick

1899 Hoffenheim have a chance to respond

Werder Bremen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Borussia Dortmund and a 3–2 away win at FSV Mainz 05. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Holstein Kiel and a 3–0 home win over Bayer Leverkusen.

The head-to-head favours 1899 Hoffenheim

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Werder Bremen, 0 draws, 4 for 1899 Hoffenheim, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 75%. Werder Bremen score 1.8 and concede 3.2 a game, 1899 Hoffenheim 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · 1899 Hoffenheim · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: 1899 Hoffenheim have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Werder Bremen — last game: Away to Borussia Dortmund (2-3) they had 50% of the shots (12 to 12, on target 6-4) and 43% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 16′–30′: under 73% of the pressure → conceded on 17′. 30′–46′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 46′–61′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 64% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. 1899 Hoffenheim — last game: Away to Holstein Kiel (1-1) they had 45% of the shots (13 to 16, on target 4-5) and 56% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Werder Bremen) 2.80 → 2.40 (-14.3%, backed) · 2 (1899 Hoffenheim) 2.30 → 2.62 (+13.9%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.36 → 1.53 (+12.5%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.50 (-10.2%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.