Udinese v AS Roma: analysis and our pick
Serie A · today 19:00 · Bluenergy Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Udinese looking for a response
Udinese have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Parma and a 0–2 home defeat to AC Milan. AS Roma have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 home win over Cagliari and a 3–3 away draw with Napoli.
The head-to-head favours AS Roma
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Udinese, 0 draws, 4 for AS Roma, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Udinese 1–0 AS Roma (2 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Udinese score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game, AS Roma 3.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 2.0 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · AS Roma · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: AS Roma have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Udinese — last game: Away to Parma (0-0) they had 71% of the shots (20 to 8, on target 5-2) and 58% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 15′–31′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 31′–45′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. AS Roma — last game: Against Cagliari (4-2) they had 51% of the shots (20 to 19, on target 8-8) and 61% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 21′. 60′–75′: under 91% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.50 → 5.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.38 (-9.2%, backed) · 1 (Udinese) 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · X (draw) 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.