Tottenham v Crystal Palace: analysis and our pick

Crystal Palace have a chance to respond

Tottenham have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Chelsea and a 3–1 home win over Coventry. Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Fulham and a 0–2 home defeat to Newcastle.

The head-to-head favours Crystal Palace

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Tottenham, 0 draws, 3 for Crystal Palace, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace (5 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Tottenham score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Crystal Palace 1.0 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.2 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Tottenham · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Tottenham have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Tottenham — last game: Away to Chelsea (2-0) they had 68% of the shots (15 to 7, on target 4-4) and 69% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 80′ for Chelsea (Cole Palmer): the opponent played with ten for ~10 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Crystal Palace — last game: Away to Fulham (1-0) they had 22% of the shots (4 to 14, on target 3-4) and 26% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 57% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 4.75 → 4.10 (-13.7%, backed) · 2 (Crystal Palace) 5.50 → 4.75 (-13.6%, backed) · 1 (Tottenham) 1.50 → 1.65 (+10%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.